Facts belie Tulsi Gabbard’s claim about Pakistan’s missiles

ISLAMABAD: Claims in the US Intelligence Community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment that Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme could evolve into intercontinental capabilities capable of striking the US mainland are contradicted by available data.

The annual report details worldwide threats to US national security and identifies risks from foreign entities.

Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, presented the report at the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Hearing on Wednesday. 

In her opening statement, she said that, “... Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that put our Homeland within range.”

She added: “Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the Homeland.”

Facts belie Gabbard’s claim  

According to figures by South Asia Times, Pakistan’s missile inventory is built around the Hatf series, with ranges progressing from short- to medium-distance systems. 

These include Hatf-I (around 65 km), Hatf-II (180 km), Hatf-III (300 km), Hatf-IV (750 km), Hatf-V (1,500–1,800 km), and Hatf-VI (up to 2,750 km). The same dataset lists additional systems such as Ghauri (1,500 km), Shaheen-1 (750 km), Ghaznavi (300 km), Abdali (200 km), Nasr (60 km), Babur (700 km), and Ra’ad (350 km).

Not grounded in strategic reality: former Pakistan foreign minister 

Pakistan's former foreign minister Jalil Abbas Jilani, in a post on X on Thursday, stated that Tulsi Gabbard's "assertion at the Senate hearing that the US homeland is within range of Pakistan’s Nuclear/Con missiles is not grounded in strategic reality."

He said "Pakistan’s N doctrine is India specific aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in S Asia, not projecting  power globally."

On missile delivery systems 

Meanwhile, the assessment report states: “The US’s secure nuclear deterrent capability continues to ensure our safety here at home. However, China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that can strike the Homeland. The IC projects threats to the Homeland will expand to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, from the current figure of more than 3,000 missiles.”

It further notes: “In spite of the growing proliferation of one-way attack UAVs that perform missile-like functions, China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and Russia will continue to prioritize advanced missiles that can threaten the US. However, their militaries almost certainly will plan to pair their high-end missiles with cheaper, expendable systems to stress US missile defenses.”

On weapons development, the assessment says: “Countries with WMD capabilities are modernizing, expanding, and testing those capabilities and delivery systems. With varying degrees of success, China, North Korea, Pakistan, and Russia probably will continue to research, develop, and field delivery systems that will increase their ranges and accuracy, challenge US missile defenses, and provide new WMD-use options. India also is developing new and longer-range nuclear delivery systems.”

On South Asia 

Addressing South Asia, the report states: “During the past year, South Asia remained a source of enduring security challenges for the US. India–Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear conflict given past conflicts where these two nuclear states squared off, creating the danger of escalation. The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam, in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict.”

It adds: “Pakistan continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology that provides its military the means to develop missile systems with the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia, and if these trends continue, ICBMs that would threaten the US.”

On Pakistan and Afghanistan 

The report also highlights regional tensions: “Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have been tense, with intermittent cross-border clashes, as Islamabad has become increasingly frustrated with anti-Pakistan terrorist groups’ presence in Afghanistan while Islamabad faces growing terrorist violence. On 26 February, the Afghan Taliban launched strikes against Pakistani military positions along their shared border, claiming retaliation for prior Pakistani airstrikes. Pakistan responded within hours by bombing Afghan border provinces and the capital Kabul — the first time Pakistan has struck Afghanistan’s urban centers."

"The fighting has continued since it erupted. Pakistan’s army chief warned this month that lasting peace requires the Taliban to sever ties with militants targeting Pakistan. The Taliban’s public posture has been to call for dialogue, but it has denied harboring anti-Pakistani militants,” the report states.

On partners to counter terrorism

On terrorism, the assessment notes: “In response to setbacks to their capabilities that have mitigated the threat of large-scale, complex attacks and reinforced the regional focus of the largest groups, Islamist terrorists have shifted attention to executing information operations to spread propaganda and inspire or enable individuals located in or with access to the West.”

It adds: “US military operations and collaboration with international partners in Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, and Syria during 2025 removed key terrorist leaders and operatives, degrading the capability of al-Qa‘ida.”

The report further states: “Even if the great powers refrain from conflict, many regional and smaller powers are growing much more willing to use force to pursue their interests. Countries such as Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE are using a mix of lethal aid, proxy forces, or their own military assets to provoke or undermine their rivals or to tilt nearby conflicts in their favor.”

Pakistan’s position 

On concerns raised in the past by the US, Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson, in a statement back in 2024, had stated: “The alleged threat perception from Pakistan’s missile capabilities and delivery means, raised by the US official are unfortunate. These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history.”

“We wish to reiterate that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are meant to defend its sovereignty and preserve peace and stability in South Asia.”

“Pakistan cannot abdicate its right to develop capabilities that commensurate with the need to maintain credible minimum deterrence as well as evolving and dynamic threats,” the FO spokesperson had stated.